Saturday, December 29, 2012

Quick hitting storm system to bring snow to southern New England 12/29-12/30/12

An area of low pressure is currently working up the east coast and will be undergoing fairly rapid cyclogenesis over the next 12-18 hours.  This storm will have a solid amount of moisture associated with it, however, the storm will be a fast mover and the strongest lift will only be over the region for a brief amount of time.  Because of these two factors this will help to prevent this storm from dropping much more significant snowfall totals across the region.  If this storm were to move slower we could be looking at widespread amounts of 8''+ across much of the region.  

The storm will be tracking just to the south of southern New England and sliding northeastward towards the southeastern Canadian coastline.  This track will ensure cold air stays locked in place for pretty much the entire region meaning precipitation will be all snow.  It's possible, however, that locations along the CT/RI coastline and along the Cape begin as either a mix of rain/snow or a mix with sleet.  With this potential for mixing across these locations snowfall totals may be held back a bit.

Snowfall will begin breaking out anytime after noon-1 PM as snow flurries/showers ahead of the system move through the region.  While this will be a quick hitting system the height of the storm conditions will be very messy.  Snowfall rates of 1-2'' per hour are likely, perhaps even isolated 3''/HR rates where the strongest banding sets up.  The timeframe for the heaviest snowfall should be between 6 PM-12 AM.  This is when most of the accumulations will occur.  While snowfall will continue through the rest of the evening and overnight hours snowfall rates should be much more modest, below 1''/HR rates.  Snowfall will begin exiting the region from SW to NE beginning around 1-2 AM.

Winds may become a bit gusty as well across portions of the region, especially the southeast coast where winds could gust upwards of 25-35 mph.  While not significant this could lead to some isolated pockets of tree damage or perhaps power outages but this is not expected to be a significant issue.

Below is the forecasted snowfall map.  The area of 5-9'' is where the strongest lift/banding is expected to setup.  It's possible we could see some isolated amounts of 10'' somewhere within this area.  


No comments:

Post a Comment